The statement was made by Mr Peter Petri, Professor of Brandeis International Business School, USA, during a workshop held yesterday in Ha Noi.
According to Petri, TPP will enable Viet Nam to accelerate exports of goods by 21-35%, boost access to imported goods by 24-39%, increase FDI by 7-11% and push up overall productivity gains by 16-28%. The agreements also put reform pressure on the country, creating momentum for growth.
In his scenario, Viet Nam’s additional gains from TPP will be US$36 billion, representing 15.5% of the country’s GDP in 2025. This is the highest percentage among 24 countries and territories expected to participate in TPP in the future.
However, intellectual property rights and labour will be the topic of much debate during the TPP negotiations. Developed countries will seek practices that are difficult to adopt and may impede competitiveness in low-income countries like Viet Nam.
“Negotiation factors may complete change such optimistic scenario,” said Dr Nguyen Thi Thu Trang, Director of WTO Centre, Deputy Director of Legal Department, VCCI.
Trang said if the rules of origin, standards of labour, environment, intellectual property rights and other technical barriers are stricter, Viet Nam shall not benefit from TPP elimination of major tariff at all.
“We do not worry about missing the TPP train, we only worry that such train will bring us to a desert where we can find nothing,” Trang said. Viet Nam has officially joined TPP negotiation since November 2010 together with other eight countries, i.e. Brunei, Chile, the US, Malaysia, New Zealand, Australia, Peru and Singapore. So far, TPP countries have held 11 talks and are working progressively to have the agreement signed by the end of this year.
Vietfish (Thanh Phuong)